While I was at Canyon Ranch the villagers finished the first compost toilet and boy they did a great job. I have attached pictures of the toilet and the plans. In the plans you will see there is an optional solar panel to power the exhaust fan. The villagers went with this option the solar panel upped the cost of the toilets by $150.00 which is a fortune in Botswana. Without the solar panel we would not have had any power (electricity) for the exhaust fan as we have not started working on our energy plan yet.
The village elders choose to take the profits from the pineapple sales and buy the solar panel. We now have an issue as $150.00 was all the money we had in the treasury. We still need to pay the two employees of our new public works department to empty the compost toilet and we still have 4 more toilets to build.
I gave the elders a class on economics and we are going to adopt a pay as you go policy for all current and future government expenditures. Also we are going to build up our treasury to have at least a 2 year surplus.
In the mean time to help us through this short term crisis and to help us with our up coming energy projects, I will have the details out shortly we are starting a village foundation that anybody can donate to.
If you would like to make a donation, simple click on the donate button below, we accept all major credit cards, we are looking to raise 7,000 Pula’s which is equivalent to 1,000 US dollars and should give us a 2 year surplus of funds. Any donation would be appreciates just pennies would help out our village. Unfortunately the donations will only be tax deductible if you live in Botswana.
Please Donate to Dug's Village
The villagers all love the new compost toilet I believe once we have the first 5 built we will see a nice reduction in sewage and also no longer a need to buy elephant dung. Though buying the solar panel has put a financial burden on the village, hindsight tells me it was the right thing to do as it make the compost toilet much more functional and keeps with our goal of energy independent and a zero carbon foot print. We will also be better educated to put together our energy plan as we will now have some experience with Solar Power.
Not much poker for me this week, my nephew “Z” who you may remember from the Puerto Rico trip had an awesome evening playing poker. He played about 6 hours and won over $1,200.00 that is over $200.00 an hour or $400,000.00 a year. Below is one of his first hands and shows how the poker gods helped him out at first, but after that hand it was all skill. Great job “Z”
Cheers,
DUG
P.S. The results are in and it looks like DUG is headed to Greenland.
On the road again (pictures at bottom of post) just landed in Atlanta and getting ready to head to our next stop Dallas, 13 hours Cape Town South Africa to Atlanta Georgia. Every time I take one of these long flights I think why the hell did I move to Botswana? Then I look at my annual living expense of 52 U. S. Dollars a year and know it was the right choice for the life style I have chosen to live, a nomadic on-line poker player.
We met up with Larry in Dallas. I was right Larry and Eddie had a falling out. Here is the story Larry tells, he and Eddie were playing paddle ball and on the court next to them was a guy with a pair of real short shorts (see picture). The kind tennis players wore in the late 70's early 80's. From what Larry says, Eddie was making cat calls at the guy, this put Larry over the edge and that was that. Though Larry did hint he might reconcile with Eddie if he would just behave. The one odd thing was all weekend Larry kept doing some kind of mating dance.
I am glad Margarite is with me as it should help Larry and Eddie for that matter see I am off limits.
Larry's Mating Dance Video
I goofed up and booked a different flight then Larry. Actually the flight Larry was booked on was $25 more so I went for the later flight figuring Margarite and I could go stand by on Larry’s flight, I figured wrong so we are on a flight that is an hour behind Larry.
He claims there will be a ride for us at the airport. Flying over the Southwest United States that vast wide open landscape always overwhelms me. Every time I fly over New Mexico I see a solution to the Mideast conflict, just move all the stuff in Israel to New Mexico. Change the name of New Mexico to New Israel then have the Israelis move to New Israel. The terrain is very similar the Israelis took a desert and turned it into a great country I am sure they could do it again. If I lived in a neighborhood where my neighbors randomly fired rockets at me I think I would move. My guess is it would be cheaper for the United States to move every Israelite to New Israel, then stop giving aid to Israel, Jordan, and the other Middle East countries that the United States supports. Just a random thought from DUG as I fly over New Mexico / New Israel and see a very similar terrain as the Middle East.
Tucson airport is not much bigger them the Botswana International Airport. It seems to be new and well equipped.
Larry and Chephart Yosh were waiting for us when we arrived Chephart is Larry’s relative we are staying with, the relationship was never explain and we did not ask so we do not know how Larry and Chephart are related, brother sister, aunt nephew, uncle niece, mother son or maybe father daughter. Though the last two would be tough as Larry and Chephart seemed to be the same age.
The drive from the airport to Canyon Ranch was 40 minutes you go by all these airplane junk yards. They look just like car junk yards but with airplanes, miles and miles of them. We talked about current events, the Middle East conflict came up. Chephart said she had an idea to solve the issue, move Israel to New Mexico it was then that I realized I had started a movement to help create world peace.
Canyon Ranch is set at the base of the Catalina Mountains. Chephart's house is just breath taking with views of the Catalina Mountains. As the sun goes across the sky the mountains change color from a dark brown, to a deep red and finally a lush green. The house is a Frank Lloyd Wright design. The house has a very practical design using the landscape and a lot of natural light. On the main floor are 2 guest bedrooms with private baths, a master suite, office, library, and laundry room. The basement has a complete apartment with a full kitchen.
The interior materials, walls and floors are all natural materials giving the interior and exterior a strong relationship with the desert area of Tucson. It is just a delightful and warm home.
After we got settled in Larry, Margarite and I went down to the health center to get a tour and sign up for a Saturday morning hike. Larry and I also used the hot tube, steam bath, and cold pool 50 degrees, that is COLD water, boy was there shrinkage.
The facilities were very nice a lot of staff, a complete high end health club and medical center. The staff went out of there way to make us feel welcome. With the United States in a depression the facilities were pretty much empty so we got a lot of attention from the staff. There is always a silver lining is every cloud.
On the walk back to the house Larry explained that most homeowners do not use their homes as the homes are second or third homes and not their permanent residents. Across the street from Chephart is Diana Ross's house she is never there.
We meet Teri Albertazzi who lives in Chephart’s basement apartment and is a professional tri-athlete.
We went out to dinner at the Flying V Bar and Grill. On the way to dinner we picked up Davy who seemed to be a shady character I think his real name is Nicky. I was told he owns a restaurant, but I think that is how he launders his money from his real business. He spoke about his house on the coast of Mexico and his travels in and out of Mexico. I think he is a drug lord posing as a restaurant owner. After dinner we headed back to the house and hit the sack.
Saturday we got up early and went on a 7 mile hike (Agua Caliente Hill Trail) into the mountains we started at 2,500 feet and reached 4,000 feet. I have to tell you there was no complaining from Larry. If you remember all Larry did the first day of our Grand Teton hike was complain, not this hike, his was as happy as good be. The views were awesome the Cactus (plants) were very unique some only exist in this area. Our guides Dusty and Jeff did a very nice job of educating us on the area much better then our guide Brad Armstrong in the Grand Teton Mountains.
After the hike we had lunch at one of the Canyon Ranch Restaurants. All the menus show calories, fat, protein in grams of the foods they serve, so if you want you can eat healthy.
After lunch we did some weight training. Margarite is training for the Boston Marathon so she wanted to really work out. After the weights we did a bosu class then Margarite did a yoga class while Larry I did a whirlpool and steam bath.
The facilities and instructors are all very nice and knowledgeable, top notch. I think if you lived at Canyon Ranch it would be hard not to be, in awesome shape. They have all types of exercise classes and equipment.
Chephart is cooking dinner for us tonight Larry said she is a great cook. Steve Bennett and his wife, friends of Chephart’s stop by for drinks before dinner. It ended up by pure coincidence I knew Steve from when I was in the software business Steve was the president of Bay Advanced Technology a customer of the company I worked for. It was nice to catch up with Steve.
Mickey and Andy came over for dinner. Mickey is Chephart’s son. Dinner was great Chephart made this vegetable dish Brussels Sprout and Tomatoes the taste was great. The main course was a steak which Mickey grilled to perfection.
Sunday morning we got up and went to Sabino Canyon Chephart and Larry walked while Margarite and I ran. The canyon was awesome to run through 3.7 miles end to end. We started at 6:30 so the only light was from the stars, as we ran the sun came up, the sun created all kinds of colors on the canyon walls. The run out was all up hill with the last 3/4 of a mile at a 10% grade. So the return was an easy 3.7 mile down hill. I was just glad it was not reversed.
After the run, we did some swimming then an abs class this class would give a fat guy like me a 6 pack if he did the class everyday. The temperatures are rather mild for this time of year, lows in the 50’s at night and highs in the high 70’s to low 80’s during the day.
Chephart had bought us show tickets to see, A Raisin in the Sun, by the Arizona Theatre Company at The State Theater the story line was great and actors and actresses were just magical. Larry did have a problem with end of the story line. He felt the family would have been better off swallowing their pride and taking the white folks for all they had. After some philosophical discussion I think we all agreed with Larry. You will need to now go to the show and see for yourself.
We had dinner at El Charro Cafe - Tastes and Traditions of Tucson which is a local authentic Mexican restaurant. I ordered the house special which is made with this steak that is dried in this dryer that hangs outside the restaurant. It is world famous but I did not feel it deserved to be.
At 8:00 pm we headed for the sack we were all beat.
Monday morning a very historic week stated today in the United States, today is Martin Luther King Day and tomorrow Barack Obama becomes the first president with ancestors (father) from Africa. There are a lot of positive emotions going in this country that relative to it’s past is in pretty bad shape. Though living in Botswana I am insulated from the negative issues affecting the United States, I enjoy following them as most are caused by greed.
After watching the news and having some breakfast, which we were allowed to prepare ourselves (more on that later) we headed to the Health club for another abs class and bosu class, then some relaxation in the hot tub, steam room and showers. I am starting to get use to Larry looking at me like I am piece of meat.
At Canyon Ranch they have demonstration kitchens where the chef will cook a meal and explain ways to make them healthy. Our chef Butch knew Larry may have even been an old boy friend of his. Butch made crab cakes that had to be the lightest crab cakes I ever had. I need to mention I do not have crab cakes that often because the crab causes me to have gout attacks, what I am trying to say is I am not an expert on crab cakes.
After lunch Margarite and I hung at the pool while Larry took a nap. At 4:00 we took a self pleasuring class which was very interesting and relaxing. Then a nice whirlpool, steam bath and shower with Larry. We had planned to go to Davy's restaurant for dinner but it was not open it seems it is never open, but why open if you goal is to launder money and not make money instead Chephart made a nice salad and we added some left over’s. I had some lasagna that Davy had made for a party it was out of this world.
At dinner we talked about Eddie, boy Larry bashed him, when we were hiking the Grand Teton Mountains, Larry had told Eddie he was invited sometime to Canyon Ranch. I would doubt Chephart would allow him in her house after the way Larry spoke about him. Some of what Larry said was true and some was NOT!
After dinner we packed up for our travels home.
Tuesday we got up early to go for a run. I am going to run the Philadelphia Broad Street 10 Miler with the Full Moon Running Club, the same group I ran the Philadelphia Marathon with. My training started today with 4, 1 mile intervals at a 7:30 pace. After the run we did a foot class where you massage your foot by standing on a hard ball and then a softer ball with rubber spikes. It really relaxed my feet especially after a hard run.
Then the normal whirlpool, steam bath and shower with Larry. Our flights were at 12:00 so we had to keep moving. We did have time to watch Obama's speech which he delivered very well. Humble but powerful. He clearly told the American people they needed to take responsibility to help fix the mess they are in. He went on to tell the world we are your friend just don't cross us.
Chephart was a great host and there is no way I will be able to thank her for her great hospitality, once we learned the kitchen rules, she made us feel so welcome and part of the family. Here are the rules, in order to use Chephart’s kitchen you have to be certified. As far as my knowledge goes only Mickey (her son) is certified. There are two exceptions, breakfast and getting your self a drink. Other then that you may NOT use the kitchen, Chephart will prepare any other meals for you. If you do use the kitchen for breakfast you get points that go toward your certification. Not going in the kitchen included cleaning up. This took me some getting use to. I felt so funny making my breakfast and then just leaving the dishes for Chephart to clean, but these are Chephart’s rules and I learned very fast you DO NOT break Chephart’s rules.
To get home Margarite and I back track the same itinerary we flew out on. It will take us close to 24 hours in real hours to get home. I had suggested we keep flying west to get home stop in New Zealand and Australia but Margarite could not be away from the orphans that long.
There are only about 14 days left to vote on my next trip. (vote button is on the left) Please have people vote, it looks like Greenland is winning and based on the attached video this scares me! I have done some research on Greenland and Ice Fishing is a big sport there, the attached video shows a tourist Ice Fishing in the wrong spot. So please pass the word around and get the vote out. I am not sure I want to go to Greenland.
This week we got all the land set for the compost toilets and construction should start next week. Everybody in the village is very excited. Speaking of toilets I am not sure you remember Larry, the guy that pooped 4 times a day on my Grand Teton Mountains Trip, well he invited me to join him atCanyon Ranch this coming weekend.
Canyon Ranch is a high end spa located in Tucson Arizona. Larry has a relative that lives there, that is allowed 3 guests. Originally it was going to be Larry, Eddie (also from the Grand Teton Trip), I think Larry and Eddie broke up, so at the last minute I was able to invite Margarite. I invited Margarite I hoping we could use one of her Uncles Private Jets, but no such luck. On Friday we fly from Botswana, to Cape Town, South Africa, on to Atlanta Georgia, then to Dallas (where we meet Larry) and then on to Tucson. I am looking forward to the trip more on that next week.
This week poker had its ups and down, at one point I was up $400.00 and then I was down $400.00 I ended up $9.25 for an hourly rate of $.84 an hour. Not very good, below you will see my worst hand which was an armature play. I should have never played the hand and for sure should have folded when the Ace hit.
I have set my goals for this year. I would like to see total winnings of $3,000.00 and an hourly rate of $10.00 an hour. Last year I had total winnings of $1,708.55 with an hourly rate of $3.31 not counting any bonuses. It is a good thing I live in Botswana (very cheap to live).
BEST HAND OF THE WEEK
POKERSTARS GAME #23904186658: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2009/01/14 17:59:30 ET Table 'Alkeste III' 9-max Seat #7 is the button Seat 1: erod13 ($357.15 in chips) Seat 2: skilldream ($80.30 in chips) Seat 3: DUG ($189.40 in chips) Seat 4: IntenseDawg ($200 in chips) Seat 5: vhunter ($125.45 in chips) Seat 6: Hawkeye-P.26 ($132 in chips) Seat 7: leomaniac ($31 in chips) Seat 8: Mooogie ($315.45 in chips) Seat 9: 8fivesuited ($200 in chips) Mooogie: posts small blind $1 8fivesuited: posts big blind $2 Hawkeye-P.26: posts big blind $2 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to DUG [7c Ac] erod13: folds skilldream: calls $2 DUG: calls $2 If I can get in cheap to see a flop it is worth it. IntenseDawg: raises $12 to $14 vhunter has timed out vhunter: folds vhunter is sitting out vhunter has returned Hawkeye-P.26: folds leomaniac: folds Mooogie: folds 8fivesuited: folds skilldream: folds DUG is disconnected DUG is connected DUG: calls $12 So why did I call, I put him on QQ or JJ so any Ace or a flush will beat him, not a high probability, but I know this guy is loose and stubborn (will not fold) so my implied odds are about 20 to one, pretty good. *** FLOP *** [Qc 4c 9h] I like this flop I have a flush draw and he might have hit a set. DUG: bets $12 I bet 12 bucks why? The pot is $34 so that is almost 3 to one. If he has QQ he should raise me, if he does not any Ace will give me the best hand (3) and club (9) so I have 12 outs, or 24% which is 4 to 1. With implied odds I will take the 3 to 1. Plus the betting before I hit the flush will make him think I am not on a flush draw. IntenseDawg: calls $12 This tells me he has JJ and not QQ, QQ should have raised even if just a small amount. *** TURN *** [Qc 4c 9h] [3c] DUG: checks I have the nuts, just hope a J hits. IntenseDawg: checks Tells me he has a J. *** RIVER *** [Qc 4c 9h 3c] [Jh] DUG: bets $22 Now to get all his money, I make a very weak bet. IntenseDawg: raises $33 to $55 DUG: raises $71 to $126 Now I raise him a bunch like I think he is bluffing. IntenseDawg: raises $48 to $174 and is all-in Bingo DUG: calls $37.40 and is all-in Uncalled bet ($10.60) returned to IntenseDawg *** SHOW DOWN *** IntenseDawg: shows [Jc Js] (three of a kind, Jacks) DUG: shows [7c Ac] (a flush, Ace high) DUG collected $382.80 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $385.80 | Rake $3 Board [Qc 4c 9h 3c Jh] Seat 1: erod13 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 2: skilldream folded before Flop Seat 3: DUG showed [7c Ac] and won ($382.80) with a flush, Ace high Seat 4: IntenseDawg showed [Jc Js] and lost with three of a kind, Jacks Seat 5: vhunter folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 6: Hawk eye-P.26 folded before Flop Seat 7: leomaniac (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 8: Mooogie (small blind) folded before Flop Seat 9: 8fivesuited (big blind) folded before Flop
WORST HAND
POKERSTARS GAME #23902554462: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2009/01/14 17:05:07 ET Table 'Alkeste III' 9-max Seat #1 is the button Seat 1: erod13 ($191 in chips) Seat 2: ela144 ($174.05 in chips) Seat 3: DUG ($202.65 in chips) Seat 4: zagagolfer15 ($222 in chips) Seat 6: Pfropfen ($180.65 in chips) Seat 7: TheLife ($332.90 in chips) Seat 8: Mooogie ($128.25 in chips) Seat 9: TimStone ($200 in chips) ela144: posts small blind $1 DUG: posts big blind $2 msv83: sits out *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to DUG [Tc Kd] zagagolfer15: folds Pfropfen: folds TheLife: folds Mooogie: folds TimStone: folds erod13: raises $4 to $6 ela144: folds DUG: calls $4 Never should have played this hand, called because it was only 4 bucks. *** FLOP *** [7d Th Kh] DUG: checks erod13: bets $10 DUG: raises $22 to $32 I hit top to pair, but many cards will scare me, so I want to end the hand now. erod13: calls $22 Not good, he has AK, KK or AA *** TURN *** [7d Th Kh] [As] DUG: bets $22 erod13: raises $50 to $72 DUG: raises $50 to $122 Why the hell did I do that. erod13: raises $31 to $153 and is all-in DUG: calls $31 Have to call, but I will only beat KQ at this point. *** RIVER *** [7d Th Kh As] [7c] *** SHOW DOWN *** DUG: shows [Tc Kd] (two pair, Kings and Tens) erod13: shows [Ad Ks] (two pair, Aces and Kings) erod13 collected $380 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $383 | Rake $3 Board [7d Th Kh As 7c] Seat 1: erod13 (button) showed [Ad Ks] and won ($380) with two pair, Aces and Kings Seat 2: ela144 (small blind) folded before Flop Seat 3: DUG (big blind) showed [Tc Kd] and lost with two pair, Kings and Tens Seat 4: zagagolfer15 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 6: Pfropfen folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 7: TheLife folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 8: Mooogie folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 9: TimStone folded before Flop (didn't bet)
This post explains how to determine your bet size in N0-Limit Texas Holdem. There is also a video by Phil Gordon that I would suggest watching. Post continued below video
When playing no-limit Texas Holdem you have at most 3 decisions each time the action is to you, Check, Fold, Bet.
Check - there was no action before you and you do not want to make a bet. You simple check your hand it is like taking a free pass.
Fold - you want to throw your hand away. Normally this is after someone has made a bet or a raise. You feel your hand is not good enough to continue playing. On occasion I fold without a bet or raise, remember information has value in poker, with on line poker even if a hand is checked down to the river and you lose (muck your hand) your opponent will get to see your hold cards. So if I feel there is a high certainty I am going to lose the hand and I do not want my opponent to see my hold cards I might fold even though I do not have to put any more money in the pot to see if I won. I do not do this often, but will when I feel allowing my opponent to see my hold cards will give my opponent an advantage in future hands.
Call / Bet / Raise – These action are when you want to put money in the pot. I put all these actions as one category with Call / Bet / Raise being sub categories depending on the action before you and how many chips you want to add to the pot.
This post will focus on this last category, specifically what size your bet should be and why. If you can not follow the math, do not worry, just tried to find me at PokerStars I will love to play against you.
The key to poker is making fewer mistakes then your opponent. A way to make this happen is to force your opponent to make mistakes by making the correct bet size for you but the wrong one for him.
In order to explain this I will first give you a couple definitions:
Outs - the number of cards that will give you a hand that you feel would give you the best hand.
For example let's say you are in a hand with one other opponent who happens to show you his hold cards ten of spades and ten of clubs. You have ace king of diamonds. The flop is 5 of diamonds 8 of diamonds and 2 of spades. For you to win you need an ace, king, or any diamond to come on the turn or the river. There are 3 aces, 3 kings, and 9 diamonds left in the deck. That means there are 15 cards that will give you the winning hand. That means you have 15 outs. Remember most of the time you will not know your opponents hold cards so you have to make an educated guess as to your outs. For example let us say your opponent had a pair of 8’s instead of Ten’s. You now have a few less outs. An Ace and King no longer helps you since you opponent has 3 of a kind. That is 6 less outs. Also the 2 or diamonds no longer helps you as that would give you a flush but your opponent would then have a full house. With you opponent having a pair of 8’s outs you have 8 outs. You lose you 6 outs for the Aces and Kings and 1 out for the 2 of diamonds. 15 minus 7 leaves you with 8 outs. You will see below this has a dramatic effect on what size bets you should call.
Odds – the chance you will hit a card you need to make your hand what you believe will be the best hand.
If we use the above example, there are 52 cards in the deck. You have 2 in your hand, and there are 3 on the board for a total of 8 known cards. That means there are 47 unknown cards. Of the 47 unknown cards you know (because your opponent showed you his pair of tens) that there are 15 cards that will give you the best hand. So that means your odds or getting one of your 15 cards on the turn is 15 out of 47 or about 3 to one. If we look at in a percentage and we use exact numbers your odds are 3.13 to 1 or 31.9%. Many of you might be smarter then me, but for me to do his math in my head while I am playing is not that easy so a rule of thumb I use to calculate the percent chance I have of hitting one of my cards is 2% times the number of outs. So in this case my odds would be 2% times 15 outs or 30%, for me this is a close enough calculation to make my decision. I use 4% if I know I will see both cards. So in this case I would take 4% times 15 outs so I have a 60% chance of hitting one of my outs by the river. If your opponent had a pair of 8’s instead of 10’s you would have 8 outs, so now your chance of hitting your hand on the turn would be 16% instead of 30% a drastic change.
So if you can put your opponent on a hand (try to figure out what his hold cards are) you can then calculate his outs if he is behind or your outs if you are behind. Now the key is to make the right size bet to make sure your opponent makes a mistake. Or if your opponent is first to act, make sure you do not call a bet that is not giving you the correct mathematical odds to call.
Let us continue with our example. We will assume that we are playing at a $1/$2 no-limit table. You are the big blind. You opponent is the button. Everybody folded to the button, who raised to 10 blinds ($20.00), the small blind folded, and you called. The pot is now $41.00.
You are first to act, since your opponent showed you his cards, you showed him yours. You check (pass do not make a bet). What size bet should your opponent make that if you call, it would be a mistake?
We know from above you have 15 outs, if we take the 15 outs times 2% that gives us a 30% chance to hit a card that will give us the best hand. The pot is $41.00 so our opponent needs to make a bet large enough so that we are not getting the correct odds to call the bet.
30% of $41 is $12.30 so does that mean that if we called a bet of $12.30 it would be wrong. NO! What our opponent forgot to calculate in, is his bet increases the size of the pot. So now for us to call his $12.30 bet we would be betting $12.30 to win a $53.30 pot. That is about 25% or 4 to 1. We know we will win about 30% of the time, so it would not be a mistake for us to call this bet. Overtime this would be a winning call.
So what mistake did our opponent make? He forgot to add his bet to the pot to make sure we were not getting the correct odds. A bet of a little over half the pot would have been more in line. Let us say $25.00. Now the pot would be $66.00 and it would cost us $25.00 to call. We would be getting 2.64 to 1 on our money, and we know we have at best a 3 to 1 chance to win. This means over time we would lose if we called this bet.
So in this case if we called our opponent would have put us in a position for us to make a mistake. In the first example if we folded that would have been a mistake.
Let us add one more factor to this equation. Let us say that our opponent did make a bet of $25.00, but this put him all in. Now would it be a mistake to call? What has changed?
The big difference is now you know 100% that we will see two cards rather then just one card. So we have a 60% chance of hitting one of your outs. 4% times your 15 outs. So now it would be a mistake to fold, and it would be correct to call, as it only cost you $25.00 to win a $66.00 which is 37% of the pot. You could call a bet as high as $50.00, if your opponent only had $50.00 left and went all in. The pot would be $91.00. You would be betting $50.00 to win $90.00 on a hand you have a 60% chance of winning by the river. I would not call a bet over $50.00 for example $60.00 all in bet by your opponent would bring the pot to $101.00 so you are getting the correct odds to call, but there is not enough wiggle room there in my book to make that call, also if a Ten comes out on the turn, unless it is the ten of diamonds, your outs on the river get reduced down by 6. The Ace’s and King’s are no longer outs.
There is one last item I want to mention when calculating your odds, implied odds. This is the amount of money you can imply you will win if you hit your hand. Let me give you a quick very obvious example of implied odds.
Let us say you are the Big Blind and you have 2 of hearts and 3 of hearts. You opponent is the button and he has pocket aces the table has been tight and he knows you are a tight player, he is aggressive. He limps in because he knows you and the small blind will fold to any bet. The small blind folds, you check. The pot is $5.00. The flop is a 4 of hearts, 5 of hearts and a Ten of spades. You have a gut feel that your opponent has pocket Aces. You have a Straight draw and flush draw so how many outs do you have? Any Ace (2), any 6 (4) any heart (7), you can not count the 6 and Ace of hearts twice, so you have 13 outs, or a 26% chance of hitting one of your cards on the turn. You have $200.00 in your stack and so does your aggressive opponent.
With the pot being $5.00 would it be a mistake to call a $5.00 bet. The $5.00 bet would bring the pot to $10.00 so you would be betting $5.00 to win $10.00 which is 3 to 1 and you know you have about a 4 to 1 chance to win. On the surface this would look like a mistake to call.
Now you need to ask yourself the question. If an Ace or six hits that is not a heart do you think your opponent will bet more money or call a bet if you make it. If an Ace hits your opponent would have a set of Ace’s it would be very hard for him to lay that hand down, if a 6 hits he may be concerned about a straight. If a heart hits he might be concerned about a flush. You know he is aggressive and will be hard pressed to lay down his pocket Ace’s if you hit. So you have huge implied odds. For your $5.00 call you could win his whole stack of $200.00 so you are getting 50 to 1 implied odds to call. This would be a good call.
An important note whenever you are using implied odds to determine if you should call you MUST take into account the player and the chance that he will continue either betting into the pot of calling your bets. If he is a tight player and is known to lay down second best hands, you do not want to calculate in your implied odds, if he is a loose aggressive player you want to assume you will win his whole stack.
What I have talked about here is playing poker strictly by the math. While this is fine, you need to remember you will rarely know your opponents hold cards. Also there are occasions where your opponent will be bluffing or you might want to bluff. In these cases you might need to adjust your bet size. Then there are also the cases where you need to adjust your bet size to deceive your opponent. I will discuss these and more betting options in the future.
Below is an example of what I just wrote above. The detail explanation is below the hand replay.
POKERSTARS GAME #22611834771: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2008/12/04 9:18:10 ET
Table 'Carme V' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: rooney69 ($87.25 in chips)
Seat 2: croc ofs hit ($149 in chips)
Seat 3: CjBitH ($125.95 in chips)
Seat 4: DUG ($204.05 in chips)
Seat 5: slonich21200 ($144.50 in chips)
Seat 6: UHAVEITCOLD ($98.10 in chips)
Seat 7: Sparsi ($61.15 in chips)
Seat 8: dymarko ($48.15 in chips)
Seat 9: samajars ($192.70 in chips)
rooney69: posts small blind $1
croc ofs hit: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DUG [5s 6s]
CjBitH: folds
DUG: raises $4 to $6 Under the gun steal.
slonich21200: folds
UHAVEITCOLD: calls $6
Sparsi: folds
dymarko: folds
samajars: folds
rooney69: calls $5
croc ofs hit: folds
*** FLOP *** [Tc 8s 3s] I have a flush draw, any spade, 9 outs.
rooney69: checks
DUG: bets $12 I make a continuation bet. Maybe I can win the hand right here.
UHAVEITCOLD: raises $12 to $24 was the size of this raise a mistake. With 9 outs I have an 18% chance of hitting. The pot is $32 before UHAVEITCOLD does anything. His call or $12.00 makes the pot $44.00 and then his raise of $12.00 makes the pot $56.00. So for me to call the $12.00 raise into a $56.00 pot I am getting almost 5 to 1 odds and my chance of hitting my card is 18%. This is a very close call, but with the implied odds, I feel it is worth it.
rooney69: folds
DUG: calls $12
*** TURN *** [Tc 8s 3s] [9s] Bingo I hit my flush.
DUG: bets $32 Now I just want to build the pot.
UHAVEITCOLD: calls $32 He does not put me on a flush since I bet into it.
*** RIVER *** [Tc 8s 3s 9s] [6c]
DUG: bets $104 Still feel I have the best hand.
UHAVEITCOLD: calls $36.10 and is all-in He has to all he is getting such good odds, in case I am bluffing.
Uncalled bet ($67.90) returned to DUG
*** SHOW DOWN ***
DUG: shows [5s 6s] (a flush, Nine high)
UHAVEITCOLD: mucks hand
DUG collected $201.20 from pot
UHAVEITCOLD said, "lol"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $204.20 | Rake $3
Board [Tc 8s 3s 9s 6c]
Seat 1: rooney69 (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 2: croc ofs hit (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: CjBitH folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: DUG showed [5s 6s] and won ($201.20) with a flush, Nine high
Seat 5: slonich21200 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: UHAVEITCOLD mucked [8c 8h]
Seat 7: Sparsi folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: dymarko folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: samajars (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
As you can see he hit his set, but then made a mistake by not raising enough to make it a mistake to call his raise. That mistake cost him his whole stack.
I have completed my research on compost toilets and have come to the conclusion that this will be a great improvement for our village. I will review some of my findings at a high level and give a reference site if you want more details. Below the compost toilet review is my review of my Poker Statistics for the last 2 weeks.
Most of the benefits of a compost toilet are for a more conventional living area not a developing country. For example since we do not have sewage treatment plants, it is not really a benefit to relieve stress on our sewage treatment plants, but in the long run as we develop we will not need to build a sewage treatment plant, which is a nice benefit.
I was hoping to generate energy from the waste product, I found out this is not possible, but we will be able to create high quality fertilizer. Today our sewage pretty much just runs into the ground so any type of toilet will be a huge step up, creating compost from human waste is going to truly help our crops and reduce down having to buy elephant dung which is the fertilizer we used this year.
We currently have a compost pit, which is a pit that is about 20 feet deep by 10 feet square. We put all our biodegradable waste in this pit. There is an evacuation whole that the finished compost is extracted from. See picture, we deposit waste up in the hill behind the extraction bins in the picture. Gravity and nature do the rest. This is how the village has always disposed of it biodegradable waste. This compost is used as fertilizer for the crops, though the quality has never been that great, since there has not been any manure mixed in. We will continue to use this pit and add the compost from our compost toilets this will allow the human waste to actually go through two compost cycles. It takes 6 – 12 months for human waste to completely compost. The number one benefit of these toilets will be high quality fertilizer at no cost. Last year if I remember correctly I paid $50.00 U.S. Dollars for the Elephant Dung which as you might expect is a King’s Ransom in these parts, so this will be a nice saving for the village (ME).
The other big benefit will be health and quality of life. Today we use open pits as toilets see picture. In some cases these pits flow through the village, this can cause diseases also when the weather is warm and dry the odor can become unbearable. With the compost toilet the waste is contained and the natural ventilation systems of the toilets reduce down the odor.
To start we are going to build 5 compost toilets for public use, once we see success we will then ask villagers to build compost toilets for their huts. We are also going to create 2 new jobs for the village. Up to this point we have never had anybody in the village get paid for their work, the village is really run as a commune. Everybody just helping each other with goods traded on a barter system. Since we have had such a great crop of pineapples this year and have been able to sell them to neighboring villages I have suggested we start to build a true economy.
So we will have a public works department which will consist of two people and there main responsibility will be to empty the compost toilets and dump the waste in the compost pit. They will be paid 1 Pula a week 7 Pula’s are equivalent to 1 U.S. Dollar.
For more information about compost toilets click on TOILETS.
Poker was fine for the short New Year’s week and then this week. I have not set my goal for this year as far as winning and hourly rate as I am still analyzing last year’s data. I will combine all my number for the last 2 weeks in this post. I only played 9.2 hours in the last two weeks, as I spent most of my time working on my research for the compost toilets. I won $119.95 or $13.04 an hour. I played 784 hands which is about 85 an hour.
Below are my best and worst hands. I think this might be the third time my best hand started with 10 8.
BEST HAND
BEST HAND
POKERSTARS GAME #23582750657: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2009/01/04 21:54:25 ET
Table 'Baetsle III' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: Peg2006 ($48.25 in chips)
Seat 2: jessyj ($214 in chips)
Seat 3: alladin123 ($98.10 in chips)
Seat 4: pauloaffonso ($108.05 in chips)
Seat 5: DUG ($251.35 in chips)
Seat 6: scvfighting ($200 in chips)
Seat 7: zrlevin ($202.30 in chips)
Seat 8: TomasQ ($200 in chips)
Seat 9: RobertFripp2 ($222.65 in chips)
alladin123: posts small blind $1
pauloaffonso: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DUG [Td 8s]
DUG: raises $5 to $7 Going for an under the gun steal
scvfighting: folds
zrlevin: calls $7 This guy is is aggressive he could have anything, but will bluff more then most
TomasQ: folds
RobertFripp2: folds
Peg2006: folds
jessyj: folds
alladin123: calls $6 Calling Station
pauloaffonso: calls $5 Getting good odds to call
*** FLOP *** [7d 6c Kc] I have a Gut Shot Straight Draw, only one card will help me a 9.
alladin123: checks
pauloaffonso: checks
DUG: checks
zrlevin: checks Great I get a free card.
*** TURN *** [7d 6c Kc] [9h] BingoI have the nutz.
alladin123: checks
pauloaffonso: checks
DUG: bets $26.60 If I over Bet ZR will come over the time, that is his pattern.
zrlevin: raises $38.40 to $65 You have to love when a poker player plays a pattern.
alladin123: folds
pauloaffonso: folds
DUG: raises $179.35 to $244.35 and is all-in I know he is bluffing I could call and he and get all his money on the river, but that might get the poker gods upset. They do not like when you take advantage of bad players. So I end the hand here.
zrlevin: folds
Uncalled bet ($179.35) returned to DUG
DUG collected $155 from pot
DUG: shows [Td 8s] (a straight, Six to Ten)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $158 | Rake $3
Board [7d 6c Kc 9h]
Seat 1: Peg2006 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: jessyj (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: alladin123 (small blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 4: pauloaffonso (big blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 5: DUG collected ($155)
Seat 6: scvfighting folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: zrlevin folded on the Turn
Seat 8: TomasQ folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: RobertFripp2 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
WORST HAND
WORST HAND
POKERSTARS GAME #23564245429: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2009/01/04 11:55:32 ET
Table 'Sova IV' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: ESTPatrick ($256.60 in chips)
Seat 2: Weak Tite ($213 in chips)
Seat 3: horsens p ($48.95 in chips)
Seat 4: peloteur ($123.90 in chips)
Seat 5: badgers_uk ($200 in chips)
Seat 6: fripotin ($197 in chips)
Seat 7: glissdaddy ($203.15 in chips)
Seat 8: DUG ($200 in chips)
Seat 9: thorsten63 ($217.15 in chips)
horsens p: posts small blind $1
peloteur: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DUG [6d 6c] I played this wrong from the start.
badgers_uk: folds
fripotin: folds
glissdaddy: folds
DUG: calls $2
thorsten63: folds
ESTPatrick: folds
Weak Tite: raises $8 to $10
horsens p: folds
peloteur: folds
DUG: raises $8 to $18 Wanted it to look like I limped in with AA but should have checked after he called.
Weak Tite: calls $8
*** FLOP *** [2h Jd Qc]
DUG: bets $12 to weak of a bet to find out anything.
Weak Tite: calls $12
*** TURN *** [2h Jd Qc] [3h]
DUG: checks
Weak Tite: checks
*** RIVER *** [2h Jd Qc 3h] [9s]
DUG: bets $22 To weak and inconsistent betting. Just plan bad play on my part.
Weak Tite: raises $161 to $183 and is all-in
DUG: folds
Uncalled bet ($161) returned to Weak Tite
Weak Tite collected $104 from pot
Weak Tite: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $107 | Rake $3
Board [2h Jd Qc 3h 9s]
Seat 1: ESTPatrick folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Weak Tite (button) collected ($104)
Seat 3: horsens p (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: peloteur (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: badgers_uk folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: fripotin folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: glissdaddy folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: DUG folded on the River
Seat 9: thorsten63 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
In this post I am going to give a high level review of my 2008 poker play. One update before the poker review my research on compost toilets for the village has been very positive. The picture to the left is what most of the villagers have for toilets you can see why I am taking on this issue first. I hope to have a full plan in place in the next two weeks.
2008 Poker Play exceeded my expectation. 2006 and 2007 were learning years I did not expect to make money, 2008 was the year I expected to make money and I did. I had no idea if I could make a living at playing poker so I moved to Botswana where you can live for a week on one U.S. dollar. This kept the pressure off me to win a ton of money.
I played 512.12 hours of poker in 2008 winning $1,706.10 or $3.33 an hour. I actually took out close to $3,000.00 because I had gotten over $1,000.00 in bonuses.
I played 55,294 hands or 109 hands an hour.
Out of those hands the rake - money that PokerStars got was over $4,000 this is just hands that I won. Think of the money they are making with over 100,000 players playing at any one time.
If I break 2008 in half, the first half January 1 to June 30 I played 251.07 hours of poker and won $430.95 or $1.72 an hour. I played 24,131 hands which is 96 hands an hour.
The second half of the year, July 1 to December 31 I played 261.05 hours 10 more hours. I won $1,275.15 or $4.88 and hour. I played 31,163 hands which is 119 hands per hour.
As you can see the second half of the year my win rate went up close to 300%. I believe this shows my skill level is getting better and better. Both the first half and second half of the year I played $.50/$1.00 and $1.00/$2.00 no-limit tables.
In a future update I will give detail statistics on how much I won on each starting hand. At the bottom of this post is a table of all the players I played in 2008, over 6,000 and how much DUG won or lost (-) from each.
I have not talked much about bluffs, but will in a future post, I wanted to show this hand as a good example of a nice bluff.
BLUFF
BLUFF POKERSTARS GAME #23564415884: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2009/01/04 12:01:21 ET Table 'Sova IV' 9-max Seat #7 is the button Seat 1: ESTPatrick ($256.60 in chips) Seat 2: Weak Tite ($200 in chips) Seat 3: horsens p ($88.55 in chips) Seat 4: peloteur ($189.80 in chips) Seat 5: badgers_uk ($240 in chips) Seat 6: fripotin ($194 in chips) Seat 7: glissdaddy ($200.15 in chips) Seat 8: DUG ($192 in chips) Seat 9: thorsten63 ($169.20 in chips) DUG: posts small blind $1 thorsten63: posts big blind $2 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to DUG [2h 4c] ESTPatrick: folds Weak Tite: raises $4 to $6 horsens p: calls $6 peloteur: folds badgers_uk: folds fripotin: folds glissdaddy: folds DUG: raises $16 to $22 Obvious I am not serious about playing 2 4 offsuite, I just want to steal the pot. thorsten63: folds Weak Tite: calls $16 Not Good horsens p: calls $16 Not Good *** FLOP *** [5s 5c 8s] There calls tell me they must have pairs, or they are real dumb. DUG: bets $32 If they have pairs most likely they did not hit this flop. So I will try to steal it right now. Weak Tite: calls $32 Still hanging in there. horsens p: folds At least I got rid of one guy. *** TURN *** [5s 5c 8s] [ Js] DUG: checks Now there is a possible flush if I had AK spades or a full house if I had a JJ. So I would check, because that is what a person that has those hands would do. Weak Tite: checks What I expected. *** RIVER *** [5s 5c 8s Js] [7d] DUG: bets $55 Now I bet a little less then half the pot giving him about 3 to 1 odds but not 4 to 1. I want him to see this as a value bet for my full house of nut flush, but not make it low enough to call as a bluff catcher with his pair. Weak Tite: folds Perfect Uncalled bet ($55) returned to DUG DUG collected $129 from pot Nice pot with a 4 2 offsuite. DUG: doesn't show hand *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $132 | Rake $3 Board [5s 5c 8s Js 7d] Seat 1: ESTPatrick folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 2: Weak Tite folded on the River Seat 3: horsens p folded on the Flop Seat 4: peloteur folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 5: badgers_uk folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 6: fripotin folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 7: glissdaddy (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 8: DUG (small blind) collected ($129) Seat 9: thorsten63 (big blind) folded before Flop
While I was at Canyon Ranch the villagers finished the first compost toilet and boy they did a great job. I have attached pictures of the toilet and the plans. In the plans you will see there is an optional solar panel to power the exhaust fan. The villagers went with this option the solar panel upped the cost of the toilets by $150.00 which is a fortune in Botswana. Without the solar panel we would not have had any power (electricity) for the exhaust fan as we have not started working on our energy plan yet.
